一、主题：On the Bias in Estimates of Fiscal Policy Behavior

二、主讲人：李冰，清华大学经济管理学院经济系助理教授。获得美国印第安纳大学经济学博士学位，加拿大英属哥伦比亚大学经济学硕士学位，南开大学经济学学士学位。研究领域包括货币经济学、应用宏观经济学和中国经济问题。曾在China Economic Review等期刊发表多篇学术论文。

三、时间：2017年11月8日（周三），16：00-17：00

四、地点：学院南路校区主教学楼910会议室

五、主持人：王雅琦，中央财经大学金融学院讲师

Abstract: Single-equation estimates of fiscal reaction functions, which relate primary surpluses to past debt-GDP ratios and control variables, are subject to potentially serious simultaneity bias that can produce misleading inferences about fiscal behavior. Biases arise from failure to model the general equilibrium relationships between government debt and surpluses, relationships that bring in the forward-looking nature of debt valuation and the role of monetary policy in that valuation. We propose a simultaneous equations approach in the SVAR framework to solve the problem.