一、主题：积极的货币或财政政策与股票相关性

二、主讲人：张际，清华大学五道口金融学院助理教授，清华大学国家金融研究院货币政策与金融稳定研究中心副主任。她本科毕业于武汉大学，取得上海财经大学经济学硕士，获得美国加州大学圣地亚哥分校经济学博士学位。研究领域主要是宏观经济学、货币政策、失业理论、财政政策等。她的研究成果曾在Journal of Money, Credit, and Banking、Macroeconomic Dynamics、Journal of Macroeconomics等国际期刊发表。

三、时间：2018年4月11日（周三），12:30-13:30

四、地点：学院南路校区主教学楼913会议室

五、主持人：黄志刚，中央财经大学金融学院副教授

摘要：We propose a New Keynesian model with monetary-fiscal policy regime switch to explain the time-varying correlation between returns on the market portfolio and nominal Treasury bonds found in the data. In the active monetary and passive fiscal policy (AMPF) regime, neutral technology (NT) and marginal efficiency of investment (MEI) shocks are the most important drivers of economic fluctuations and the stock-bond correlation. In the passive monetary and active fiscal policy (PMAF) regime, the effect of the NT shock is depressed due to the weak reaction of short-term nominal interest rate to inflation, while the effect of the MEI shock remains strong. Because the NT shock leads to positive stock-bond correlation in the AMPF regime, while the MEI shock leads to negative correlation in the PMAF regime, our model provides a coherent explanation for the negative correlation between the market portfolio and long-term nominal Treasury bond returns during 1950s and 2000s when the fiscal policies are active, and for the positive correlation during 1980-2000 when monetary policies are active.