一、主题：Flight to Housing
二、主讲人：许志伟，上海交通大学安泰经济与管理学院副教授。2013年获香港科技大学经济学博士学位。主要从事宏观金融、经济周期和中国经济等领域研究。论文发表于Economic Journal、Journal of Economic and Dynamics Control、Quantitative Economics、Review of Economic Dynamics、《经济研究》、《管理世界》、《经济学季刊》等中英文期刊。其国际资本流动的研究获得2016浦山世界经济学青年论文奖。
Abstract: The 2007 global financial crisis has generated episodes of fight to liquidity and quality with lasting high uncertainty, especially in the age of the shortage of safe assets. This is particularly true for developing economies like China, in which financial market is underdeveloped and the financial account is tightly regulated. Both the household-level survey and housing transaction data suggest that a higher economic uncertainty boosts Chinese house prices, especially those with relatively good quality. Motivated by the empirical facts, we embed housings as safe assets into a dynamic general equilibrium model with incomplete markets. With the calibration on the Chinese economy, we show that household's holding housings to fight against the increasing uncertainty delivers a housing boom, crowding out resources that could have been allocated to the real sector, and resulting in a recession. We further incorporate the major policy intervention in Chinese housing market, i.e., the house-purchase limit policy, into our baseline model. Policy intervention does effectively curb the house prices and dampen the crowding out effect, but at the cost of restricting households' access to housings as the store of value, and thus lowers welfare by magnifying consumption dispersion. Consequently, the policy intervention faces a trade-o_ between macro-level stability and micro-level volatility.