一、主题：Export to Elude
二、主讲人：樊海潮，复旦大学经济学院副教授，香港科技大学经济学博士。主要研究领域为国际贸易、国际金融、宏观经济学。学术成果发表在Journal of International Economics, Review of Economics and Statistics, Economic Journal, Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Journal of Comparative Economics等国际一流学术期刊以及《经济研究》、《经济学季刊》、《世界经济》等国内顶尖学术期刊。
Abstract: How does domestic tax reform affect firms’ export? We address the question via a model in which firms choose their outputs for the domestic and foreign markets optimally under export tax rebates. The model predicts that strengthening domestic tax enforcement has a positive effect on exports when firms are financially constrained. We test the model predictions using detailed firm- and product-level data from Chinese industrial surveys and customs records. Our empirical analysis uses China’s Golden Tax Project, which is an information technology introduced in 2001-2002 that has dramatically reduced the cost of domestic value-added tax (VAT) enforcement. We find that after the adoption of the technology, firms located further away from local tax agencies face a higher increase in their effective VAT rates than those located nearby (the enforcement effect), and thus the former increase their export more than the latter (the elusion effect). We also find that the elusion effect is stronger for firms subject to higher export rebates or more severe financial constraints.