一、主题：Blue States and Red States: Business Cycle Divergence and Risk Sharing
二、主讲人：David Parsley，美国范德堡大学（Vanderbilt University）经济和金融学教授。他在加州大学伯克利分校获经济学博士学位，在肯塔基大学获商业和经济学学士学位。Parsley教授研究方向为国际金融、全球经济一体化、汇率、货币政策等，研究成果发表于Quarterly Journal of Economics、Journal of International Economics、Journal of Financial Economics、The Economic Journal等期刊杂志。
摘要: We examine business cycle divergence and consumption risk sharing within the United States over the last two decades. While doing so, we also separately restrict the sample to only those states whose populations have consistently voted either Republican (red) or Democrat (blue) in national elections. Examining GDP growth within the two color regions, we find that the business cycles of the two regions have diverged since the start of this century, and they behave as if they are internationally distinct: measured by GDP, their business cycles are as asynchronous as some international country pairs. However, when we examine consumption risk sharing, we find that the Red and Blue regions are well integrated with each other. Their asynchronous business cycles enable the two regions to share consumption risk through capital market integration, fiscal federalism, credit markets, and interstate migration. Little or no state GDP differences are (likely to be) ameliorated by changes in relative prices. Looking at all of the United States, and we find that the red/blue divide is indicative of the country as a whole: while GDP is asynchronous, consumption risk is shared throughout the country as a whole (probably) occurs through the same channels.