1.武竞雄（2017级博士生）：Borrowers’ Shadow Banking Financing
2.苏自力（2017级博士生）：The Impact of Anti-corruption Measures and Risk Effects on Equity Incentives and Financial Misreporting in China
3.龙真真（2017级博士生）：Asset Structure Similarity and Sysmetic Risk
4.陈浩斌（2018级博士生）：The Impact of Social Media Information on the Short-term Fluctuation of Stock Trading
苟琴 中央财经大学金融学院 副教授
陈宇子 中央财经大学金融学院 助理教授
张欣然 中央财经大学金融学院 助理教授
五、主持人：苟琴 中央财经大学金融学院 副教授
1. Borrowers’ Shadow Banking Financing
To study China’s shadow banking issues and their impact on borrowers' financing, the thesis employs unique transaction-level data including 845 Chinese borrowers whose businesses are involved in loan sales, which is one of the regulated shadow banking activities in China. The findings indicate that big firms and SMEs utilize loan sales as an alternative way of financing, owing to the fact that city investment enterprises especially depend on this regulated activity for they have limited chances of obtaining funds in the financial market. Real estate firm and private firms, due to opportunities and costs, are less likely to use loan sales for financing. Instead of simplistic eliminating loan sales, the research suggests that proper regulation measurements can foster the strength and circumvent the weakness of shadow banking.
2.The Impact of Anti-corruption Measures and Risk Effects on Equity Incentives and Financial Misreporting in China
This study examines the anti-corruption impact and risk effects of equity incentives on financial misreporting, in the context of China’s unique corporate ownership structure and governance regime. A variety of panel data methodologies has been applied using a sample that comprises 2,708 cases of financial restatement over the period 2007–2017. Our key findings suggest that managers’ shareholdings are significantly and positively associated with their firms’ financial misreporting. Equity risk due to factors such as political events and anti-corruption campaigns, is found to dramatically alter Chinese corporate governance. We also establish that the motivation for managers to manipulate firm performance is significantly more pronounced in non-state-owned enterprises (non-SOEs). This finding suggests that the risk effects associated with equity incentives could mitigate the ‘absence of ownership’ problem that is believed to affect SOEs. Additional analysis shows that managers in highly competitive industries and firms with low institutional ownership are also highly motivated to misreport their performance. The policy implications of the evidence are significant for the design of appropriate corporate governance systems for listed firms in China.
3. Asset Structure Similarity and Sysmetic Risk
We introduce SIASS to measure banks' contribution to systemic risk. SIASS is a function of the similarity of bank asset structure. We use the measure to study the performance of China's top banks in the process of macroeconomic downturn and US-China trade war. SIASS provides different types of banks' asset structure similarity spillover when the risk increases. In addition, Aggregate SIASS provides early warning signals of distress in actual activity indicators.
4. The Impact of Social Media Information on the Short-term Fluctuation of Stock Trading
This paper explores the potential impact on the stock market by three different parties, namely, We Media, brokerage analysts, and listed companies, that publish information on social media with different emotional tones assigned to their posts, respectively (e.g., the WeChat public platform). The dependent variables for the empirical analysis include stock price fluctuations, turnover rates, and turnover amounts. After acquiring the relevant event data of the CSI 300 member companies, through technical means, between October 1, 2017, and December 31, 2019, a regression analysis was conducted with a combination of dummy variables for the information release order of the three parties and independent variables for the sentiment type. Control variables were then introduced for regression analysis. There were noteworthy findings, including that all variables pass the robustness test and that social media information has an impact on stock price fluctuation. This specifically relates to the written information production through We Media alone or brokerage analysts alone, where a positive impact is seen on stock price fluctuations, regardless of the emotion attached to social media posts. Moreover, information with neutral emotional tones affects stock price increases more than information with positive or negative emotional tones. After We Media releases information with a positive emotional tone, if analysts release positive information as well, this will promote a greater increase in stock prices than when We Media, alone, releases positive information. By contrast, social media information substantially impacts stock trading enthusiasm while the variable coefficients pass the robustness test. Media information can have a remarkable impact on the rate of stock turnover and the amount of money traded. Specifically, when We Media acts as the primary information releaser, social media posts with information that reflect varying emotional tones have, as a collective, less impact on market trading enthusiasm than collective posts that reflect similar emotional tones. Sentimentally positive information released by analysts can impact market trading sentiment with greater significance than information with neutral sentimentality. When a company delivers neutral information, if We Media immediately broadcasts information as well, regardless of the sentiment of the information released by We Media, trading enthusiasm will be positively impacted. Positive announcements from companies have less influence on the turnover rate and turnover amount than neutral announcements.