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余子良|第220期双周学术论坛

作者:     日期:2017-12-11    来源:

  一、主题:Housing Price Spillovers in China: A High-Dimensional Generalized VAR Approach

  二、主讲人:余子良,南开大学金融学院长任轨(tenure-track)助理教授。南开大学经济学博士、博士后,新加坡国立大学博士后。主要研究领域包括房地产经济、金融市场与金融机构、国际贸易与投资等。研究成果在Regional Science and Urban Economics、《世界经济》等国内外学术期刊发表。多篇中文论文被人大复印资料、国研网等全文转载。部分研究成果被Reuters、CNBC、The New York Times等在内的众多国内外主流媒体或门户网站报道。

  三、时间:2017年12月13日(周三),16:00-17:00

  四、地点:学院南路校区主教学楼910会议室

  五、主持人:黄志刚,中央财经大学金融学院副教授

 

  Abstract: Applying a proposed spillover index of high-dimensional generalized VAR framework, this paper, for the first time, explores housing price spillovers among 69 large- and medium-sized Chinese cities from July 2005 to June 2015. We find that city-level monthly housing prices in China are highly interactive with each other. Demonstrating the important role of government policy, data-determined systemically important cities in the price spillover network appear to be consistent with major cities supported by several regional development plans of the Chinese government and agglomerate in five relatively concentrated areas. A higher administrative status, population, city GDP and secondary education are significant determinants of the (net) positive spillover pattern. These findings shed new lights on understanding the housing market, regional development policies, and economic geography in China.